As a rising star in the luxury goods industry, Moncler has found a unique niche between practicality and luxury
Luxury goods are experiencing a period of turbulence.
According to sources cited by Miss Tweed, the Italian luxury group Moncler may be interested in acquiring Burberry, as the story of Burberry’s turnaround in adversity has reignited market interest, and news of the company’s acquisition is once again rampant.
Against the backdrop of deepening economic uncertainty and overall pressure on the luxury goods industry, the market previously believed that the successful turnaround of brands like Gucci and Burberry, which were in a downturn, was unlikely, and generally held a pessimistic attitude.
However, just last Wednesday, Bernstein luxury goods analyst Luca Solca was the first to upgrade Burberry’s rating to outperform the market, raising the target price from £6.80 to £9.30, surprising the market.
Since the beginning of this year, Burberry’s stock price has fallen by 42% to £8.12, and in September it dropped out of the FTSE 100 index of blue-chip stocks on the London Stock Exchange, subsequently joining the FTSE 250 index, with a current market value of only about £2.9 billion.
According to data from Fashion Business News, Burberry’s revenue in the first fiscal quarter ending June 29 fell sharply by 22% to £458 million. The group’s chairman, Gerry Murphy, admitted that the quarterly performance was disappointing, and if the weak situation continues into the second fiscal quarter, Burberry expects to incur an operating loss in the first half of the fiscal year.
Burberry is pinning its hopes on new CEO Josh Schulman’s stronger execution of transformation initiatives.
Although Josh Schulman has only been in office for three months, Luca Solca has already recognized his pragmatic style in the latest research report. The report states that the brand has recently adopted a more pragmatic approach in its product and pricing strategy. In certain categories, especially Burberry’s weaker leather goods category, product pricing has been lowered to better align with its positioning, allowing it to capture the entry-level market space left by competitors after price increases.
Secondly, the analyst believes that Burberry’s brand DNA is strong, and returning to these core values will help achieve a faster and more direct revival process. Burberry recently launched an advertisement for the 2024 coat collection, demonstrating the brand’s intention to refocus on the coat category.
As a rising star in the luxury goods industry, Moncler has found a unique niche between practicality and luxury, rapidly expanding with high-end down jackets. In 2021, Moncler fully acquired the outdoor fashion brand Stone Island for 1.15 billion euros, a brand known for its outdoor jackets.
Moncler’s current advantage overlaps with Burberry, which is famous for trench coats and eager to reshape its outerwear advantage. The combination of the two can establish a giant in the high-end outerwear market with a market value of nearly 20 billion euros, bringing cost synergies in production, channels, and other areas.
However, some market opinions believe that Moncler’s acquisition of Burberry lacks rationality. Moncler is facing a performance turning point, and Burberry is also in a transition period, making the takeover and operation of Burberry a huge challenge for Moncler.
According to Moncler’s latest performance data, the group’s revenue for the first three quarters of this year increased by 6% to 1.87 billion euros, but third-quarter revenue fell by 3% to 640 million euros, causing market concerns about the group.
Core brand Moncler’s revenue for the first three quarters increased by 8% to 1.57 billion euros, but the brand’s revenue in the third quarter fell by 3% to 530 million euros. The brand’s revenue in the Asian market grew by 11% in the first nine months, but fell by 2% in the third quarter. Stone Island, acquired by the group, saw its revenue for the first three quarters decrease by 5% to 290 million euros, with a 4% decline in the third quarter.
In terms of acquisition funds, although Moncler’s market value is currently three times that of Burberry and it allied with the world’s largest luxury goods group LVMH last month, Moncler currently holds only about 1 billion euros in cash, and acquiring Burberry may require a stock swap, which could lead to the dilution of earnings per share.
According to analysts’ estimates, the acquisition cost of Burberry is approximately 4 billion pounds. The possibility of Burberry being acquired has been continuously raised over the past decade and has heated up again since last year, but there are very few buyers capable of taking over.
Moncler at a turning point needs new stimulation, and Burberry, at a valuation low, is an attractive target. However, excluding price factors, the benefits of acquiring Burberry for Moncler still seem to require consideration.
So far, neither Moncler nor Burberry has responded to this news.